Tuesday, May 30, 2017

How to save your Portfolio from a Stock Market Crash ? Is it possible ?


Stock Market crash and how to save your portfolio

Stock market crash is the only major fear that is faced by investors in equities. Stock market crash when happens, results in erosion of wealth of investors to the tune of billions. Equities is one of the asset class which provides a superior return in the long-run when compared to other well-known asset class. The exponential growth potential that equities provide is not available in any other asset class. 

How beneficial it would be if one could take benefit of investing in equities along with safeguarding portfolio against a crash ?? Is it possible ??

The answer to above question is YES. Just like we have insurance for our home, life, car etc. similarly it is possible to have insurance for our portfolio. The technical term used in financial markets for insurance is called "Hedging". Hedge means a fence or boundary formed by closely growing bushes or shrubs for protection from any external threat. There are many methods and instruments available for purpose of hedging. 

Mutual Fund managers/ HNI investors / FIIs whose portfolios run into tens of thousands of crores use hedging strategies to reduce the risk of portfolio to a great extent and are protected from a stock market crash majority of the time. 

The most effective and cost efficient mode of hedging is purchase of PUT OPTIONS in our opinion.

There are two types of options : Call option and Put option.

A put option is an option contract giving the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specified amount of an underlying security at a specified price within a specified time. This is the opposite of a call option, which gives the holder the right to buy shares.

Example of using Put option : 

Suppose you own a portfolio of stocks worth Rs 100. You purchase put options in index (Nifty) of Rs 2 to protect your portfolio from crash. In case a crash happens and your portfolio and or index both experiences a decline of 40%. The new portfolio value will be Rs 60 from Rs 100. However the value of put option in index will have increased from Rs 2 to somewhere around 30 or may be more. So the overall value still remains Rs 90 ( Rs 60 of portfolio + 30 Rs of Put option).

Incase you had not purchased Put Option , your portfolio had declined to Rs 60 from Rs 100 as per the above example. 40-50% loss is substantial and can gravely affect achievement of long-term goals of growth. In scenario that the market crash does not happen by the time of expiry of put option, the Rs 2 invested in put option becomes worthless. However the same is more or less compensated by increase in the value of portfolio incase the market had soared higher instead of crashing.

Purchasing appropriate Put Option is a WIN-WIN Situation for equity investors because it gives protection against sudden unprecedented stock market crash. It is like an insurance premium. If the stock market crashes the protection is available, if it does not the premium is gone.

Conservation is pre-condition to growth. If you can conserve your portfolio and protect it from crash, the growth will be great in the long-term and there will be no disasters. 


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Note: Put option is a derivative instrument. Options are of different strike prices and different expiry and may have different outcomes. You can contact us or your financial advisor before purchasing put option and have a practical understanding of the same.


Saturday, May 20, 2017

Sanwaria Agro Oils Ltd : A Growth Story




SANWARIA AGRO OILS LTD : A Growth Story



CMP : 14.00
BSE CODE :519260
Market Cap : 515 Crores
       LISTED ON : NSE AND BSE
TARGET : 25/36
TIME-FRAME : 12 Months

History of the Company :

Sanwaria Agro Oils Ltd is part of Sanwaria Group, which is FMCG Food Products Company. Sanwaria was originally incorporated on 22nd April, 1991 with its registered cum corporate office in Bhopal Madhya Pradesh, India. The company has three brands name ‘Sanwaria’ ‘Sulabh’, and Narmada. SAOL is an integrated agro food processor having the following lines of business:
  • Seed processing and Solvent Extraction
  • Producing and selling Soy meal (De-oiled cakes) in domestic and international markets
  • Refining of crude Soy oil to produce refined Soy oil
  • Distribution and sale of bulk and branded Soy oil
  • Producing and selling value added products like Soy Flour, Soy Chunks (Nuggets),Soy Lecithin and Acid Oil
  • Producing and selling Basmati Rice in domestic and international markets
  • Producing and selling Wheat Flour, Fortified Wheat Flour
  • Trading of other agro commodities like Wheat, Gram & Pulses etc

Financials of the Company :

  • Profit After Tax (PAT) for the year ended on 31st March,2017 has been reported  at Rs 44.13 Crore against PAT of Rs 15.68 Rs for March,2016.
  • Revenue for the year ended on 31st March 2017 has been reported at Rs 3526 Crore which is 31% higher than previous year.
  • Owing to substantial improvement in financial performance the company has announced bonus and dividend, proportion of which will be finalized at board meeting on 22nd May 2017.
  • Promoters have sensed need for additional capital and so have issued themselves equity shares to the tune of Rs 50 crores on preferential basis at 25 Rs per share in August 2016.

Investment Rationale : Why to Invest in this Stock ??
  • Shareholding of the promoters in the company is 71.68% as on 31st March,2017 which strongly indicates interest of promoters in growth of the company.
  • Being a FMCG company involved in products like rice, soya oil, flour etc which being a major necessity in nature the scope for expansion is substantial. 
  • The promoters themselves have acquired shares on preferential basis @ 25 Rs per share for capital infusion recently which gives us the conviction that stock price shall move up.
  • Market Cap to Sales Ratio : 0.15 ( Considering March 2017 sales and current market cap) is very attractive
  • At current price of Rs 14 per share and EPS of 1.20 , the stock is presently trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 11.67.
  • At a forward P/E of 20 and EPS of 1.6 we expect the stock price to soar higher atleast to 32 levels in coming time.
  • As per certain information available in public domain, the Company is a major supplier to Patanjali for various products. It could give company a huge boost in its sales considering the fact that Patanjali is expanding at an enormous pace.


Disclaimer Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report. Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations.

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have Sanwaria Agro Oils Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should peform own due diligence before investing. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of information , judgements and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes on the Blog.